ARV, repairs and the offer you can defend

The formula

ARV − investor profit − closing costs − repairs − your fee = the most you can pay. ArosFlow defaults to a 16.5% investor profit and a 7% closing cushion because that is roughly what a working cash buyer needs. Change them when your market or your buyer says otherwise, and be able to explain why.

ARV means sold, similar, near, recent

Sold — not listed, not pending guesses. Similar — same bed/bath range, same square footage band, same style, same era. Near — same school boundary and the same side of the arterial road. Recent — the last six months, stretched to twelve only when volume is thin.

Three good comps beat nine convenient ones. Note why each comp was chosen; you will be asked.

Repairs by scope, then by sanity check

Start with a per-square-foot tier for the overall condition, then adjust for the big-ticket items you confirmed: roof, HVAC, panel, sewer, foundation, full kitchen and bath replacement. Add a contingency — ten to fifteen percent — because sellers forget things and so do you.

A repair number no contractor would honour is worse than no number. If the range is wide, present it as a range and say what would narrow it.

Offer range, not a single price

Carry three numbers into the call: the most you can pay, the number you would be pleased with, and the point where you walk. Announce the middle, defend it with the inputs, and never cross the walk-away because the conversation got warm.